In the build-up to the Paris Motor Show 2016 at the end of the month,crossovers and vehicle electrification will be key reveals – but some brands will be a no-show, too. Here’s what to expect from analyst Ian Fletcher of IHS Markit.

WITH the Paris Motor Show nearly upon us, automakers are starting to reveal what they will show at this key global auto event. It also further underlines some of the current trends in the industry.

One such trend is yet more entries in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) and crossover space.

The new Peugeot 5008

From the French perspective, perhaps one of the most important models is the Peugeot 5008, which will join the second-generation Peugeot 3008. The nameplate makes the transition from multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) to compact crossover. While Peugeot believes that there is still demand for a seven-seat vehicle in this size category, its move supports the notion that demand for traditional MPVs is on the wane.

Renault’s Grand Scenic goes crossover

While Renault already has its Kadjar compact crossover in this category, it will reveal its next Grand Scenic at the event, which will be sold alongside the Scenic. However, although it is still heavily focused on the MPV segment like its predecessor, Renault has used some crossover cues on the latest generation. These include larger wheels and greater ground clearance. However, reports have also suggested that Renault is also expected to reveal a concept based upon a coupé crossover, although this is primarily intended to outline the automaker’s future design direction rather than a new model.

More SUVs to be unveiled including new Discovery

Other automakers revealing new crossovers to the public for the first time will be Skoda’s seven-seat Kodiaq which was unveiled at a media event at the beginning of the month. In addition, Toyota will unveil its C-HR during the event having shown its exterior styling at the Geneva Motor Show earlier this year, while Suzuki will mark the return of the Ignis nameplate with the introduction of a new sub-compact crossover. At the premium end of the market, Jaguar Land Rover will display its new Discovery.

Some will also indicate their next moves in this category. SsangYong shows the LIV-2 concept which will show what we might expect from the replacement for the Rexton. Mitsubishi and Lexus on the other hand seem to be showing vehicles which are more philosophical than offering clear intent of future models with their GT-PHEV and UX concepts, respectively.

The move towards electrification

There will also be an emphasis on alternative powertrain vehicles and particularly electrification at the show.

One of the most hotly tipped to be revealed in the wake of its diesel emissions saga and its subsequent revision in strategy is Volkswagen revealing a new electric vehicle concept. Reports have suggested that the vehicle will use the Nuv-e (New Urban Vehicle Electric) name and will seat five in a vehicle smaller than a Golf with a range of between 400km and 600km. It will also feature a new design language that will form the aesthetic basis of a new EV family.

Joining it is an EV concept from Mercedes which the automaker has said embodies a “concrete vision of a totally new generation of vehicles with battery-electric drive”.

General Motors to unveil Ampera-e

As for nearer-term product launches in this space, General Motors’ (GM) Opel brand will unveil the Ampera-e. This is effectively a rebadged version of the Chevrolet Bolt EV which is seen as having range of between 240- and 250-miles on official test cycles. It will be GM’s first entry in to this space in Europe. At the same time, Daimler’s Smart brand will reveal the electric drive variants of its ForTwo and ForFour models.

However, the event will also play host to the launch of more traditional fare. Public launches in the popular B CAR category – still the biggest in Europe – will include the third generation of Citroën’s C3, which will show how the brand will further develop its strategy for its mainstream models. It will also be joined by the new Kia Rio, while Dacia is planning to show the facelifted Sandero and Logan family with changes to the exterior and interior design.

In the C CAR segment, Honda will show off the European five-door hatchback Civic, which it hopes will boost the brand in the region, while Hyundai will introduce the third-generation i30. Citroën will also again explore its positioning in the D-segment category with its CXPERIENCE concept as well as being a showcase of future technologies.

What’s happening at the premium/luxury end?

Audi’s A5 coupé will be joined by a five-door Sportback variant, as well as unveiling the high-performance RS variant of the TT.

Mercedes will show off the E-Class All-Terrain, which is a variant of the E-Class estate featuring off-road design features, while its high-performance Mercedes-AMG division will feature the GT Roadster and GT C Roadster.

Porsche will show off the latest Panamera, with particular note on the 4 E-Hybrid variant, a plug-in hybrid, while Ferrari will show its open top LaFerrari as well as a planned string of special editions to celebrate the brand’s 70th anniversary.

Market outlook and implications: SUVs

As ever with an event like this, the key trends are being determined by a combination of consumer demand – in terms of the number of crossovers being revealed – and legislative emissions factors, through a focus on electrification.

There is already plenty of evidence to show the boom in the SUV category in Europe. This was initially led by the compact crossover segment – the C SUV – underpinned by the introduction of the Nissan Qashqai.

However, this category has swelled with many new entries during the past decade, and in the EU and European Free Trade Agreement (EFTA) market, sales have increased from 432,500 units to just under 1.71 million units in 2015. This is especially impressive when you consider the tumultuous period this market has suffered during the same timeframe.

However, IHS Markit expects growth to continue, and this will reach almost 1.986 million during 2016 and peaking at 2.3 million units during 2019, helped along by the likes of the new Peugeot 3008 and 5008. The B-SUV segment has also seen impressive growth rates, having stood at just 167,000 units in 2012, it is expected to surge to 1.14 million units in 2016 and hit 1.98 million units by the end of the decade.

“the tipping point for electrification growth is expected to be around 2019-20 as automakers prepare their vehicle ranges to meet the stricter fleet emissions regulations due to come into force in 2021”

Market outlook and implications: electric vehicles

There is also the ongoing growth in the EU+EFTA of plug-in vehicles. Some markets have been particularly large contributors to this in the past, underpinned by market incentives.

Although these schemes were largely very generous to stimulate demand in the first instance, some markets are now looking to reduce this support as demand has grown, and there is a hope that a level of sustainability has been built in during the near term. Momentum could well be maintained by the introduction of new models offering further technological advancements that will further lure customers on their own merits.

Looking forward, IHS Markit anticipates that the share of registrations for vehicles with some degree of electrification in the EU will continue to grow. However, the tipping point for growth is expected to be around 2019-20 as automakers prepare their vehicle ranges to meet the stricter fleet emissions regulations due to come into force in 2021. Beyond that point, demand for hybrids will grow strongly. Even so, we still expect electric vehicles to make up a fraction of the market by the end of our forecast.

What about the brands giving the Paris Show a miss?

Perhaps of particular noteworthiness is the number of brands not going to Paris. For some it has been a key part of their strategy as a business to cut back on attending these types of events, such as Volvo. However, a larger number of brands have dropped the Paris event than expected. This has included relatively large mainstream players.

Mazda, for example, has chosen not to attend because the French market is so small for it as a brand. Ford will also not be in attendance due to it not hitting the “sweet spot,” although its decision to show at technology event Mobile World Congress in Spain during February may be a contributory factor.

A significant number of luxury brands will not be in attendance, including Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Lamborghini and Aston Martin. Indeed, chief executive officer (CEO) of Aston Martin, Andy Palmer has perhaps summed this situation best to Bloomberg News, stating, “There used to be the feeling that you had to be at every motor show… But there are sometimes better ways of doing it than just always spending money on show after show after show.”

Certainly with the rise of the internet and particularly social media, automakers are starting to use these channels more heavily when introducing new models. Furthermore, with the deluge of news and information that comes out of motor shows, key product activities and announcements can get lost, hence a number are now making reveals in the weeks and even months before the public event.

Also, those important and exciting models which are set to be unveiled at the event itself have a habit of being leaked early. Therefore, while events such as these will still be important, OEMs are likely to be more discerning about which they go to in future, based on multiple factors such as exposure and market importance.